Guarantee Portfolio

This brief introduces early warning and anticipatory action as tools for protecting lives, livelihoods, and assets before disasters strike. In line with the current Governmental Aid Policy Framework, the Swedish Government has directed Sida to use development finance for anticipatory action as a means of making climate aid more effective. The brief serves as a resource for Sida staff, bringing together collective experiences in development-funded early warning and anticipatory action to date, and aims to inspire future investments in protecting people against preventable disasters. It complements an existing humanitarian brief on anticipatory action.

The Sida – MiBanco Guarantee (2018 – 2023) aimed to mobilize private capital and expand access to finance for micro-enterprises in Colombia that face barriers to credit, especially among women, in rural areas and prioritized territories.

Main method: Mixed methods; a difference-in-difference study of effectiveness at the municipal level and an analysis of stakeholder interviews using a grounded theory approach.

Positives: the guarantee expanded access to credit in higher-risk contexts. There were statistically significant increases in both the total amount disbursed and the number of loans granted in municipalities covered by the guarantee compared to non-covered municipalities. The instrument facilitated the approval of loans that were less likely to be approved without Sida’s guarantee.

Potential shortcomings: The evaluation did not detect effects of the guarantee among Sida’s prioritized target groups (rural municipalities, targeted territories or women-owned businesses). Women’s share in the guaranteed portfolio did not exceed the bank’s overall portfolio, and no attributable effects were identified on the proportion of loans granted to women.