Biodiversity Marker Guide Water and Sanitation

This brief introduces early warning and anticipatory action as tools for protecting lives, livelihoods, and assets before disasters strike. In line with the current Governmental Aid Policy Framework, the Swedish Government has directed Sida to use development finance for anticipatory action as a means of making climate aid more effective. The brief serves as a resource for Sida staff, bringing together collective experiences in development-funded early warning and anticipatory action to date, and aims to inspire future investments in protecting people against preventable disasters. It complements an existing humanitarian brief on anticipatory action.

Main evaluation method: mixed-methods, synthesis analysis, literature review.

Positives:  Across Zambia and South Sudan, Sida-supported interventions generated tangible benefits for poor populations, including improved incomes, food security, and access to essential services. In Zambia, interventions performed better as the systems are relatively stable while in South Sudan contributions have helped sustain basic services under extreme and fragile conditions.

Shortcomings: The impact results from Sida’s work were uneven and remained limited in scale and transformative impact. Impact measures were often constrained by underuse of existing evidence in contribution designs and weak evaluability. Heavy reliance on partner-reported data, limited triangulation, and insufficient use of national data systems further created a verification gap and constrained deeper analysis.

Annexes:

• Annex 1: Executive Summaries of Impact Studies
• Annex 2: Summary of impact results from 8 cases in Zambia and South Sudan (See link for annex 1)
• Annex 3: Synthesis of Impact and Evidence Use Across Zambia, South Sudan and Wider Experiences
• Annex 4: How Can Evaluation Commissioners Think About Impact Assessments Going Forward?
• Annex 5: Sida staff Contribution Management Survey results